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Global Investment firm Goldman Sachs has reduced the global recession estimated after the 90 -day interrupted Trump’s new tariff policy. On April 9, Goldman expressed 65% possibility of a recession in the next 12 months. But only 1 hour after the announcement of Trump, Goldman withdrew Risation Forecast.
However, the firm says that due to trade war and slow growth, there is still 45% chance of recession. Goldman said the old tariffs are still applicable. This is expected to reach the sector specific tariff 25%. The firm has estimated the growth rate of the US economy in 2025 at just 0.5%.
Global recession increased after new tariff policy
- JP Morgan has feared the recession to 60%. It was 40% earlier.
- S&P Global has raised the possibility of US recession to 30-35%. It was the first 25%.
- HSBC said 40% of the recession is already visible in the stock markets.
American market climbed up to 12% after stopping tariffs
The US markets climbed up to 12% on 9 April. Asian markets are also up by 10%. The reason for this boom in the markets is the decision of President Donald Trump in which he has postponed the reciperook tariff on all other countries except China for 90 days.
- Dow Jones rose 2,962 points or 7.87% to close at 40,608, which is its largest single day gain since March 2020.
- The S&P 500 index rose 9.52% to 5,456.90, which has been its largest single session ridge since 2008.
- The index of tech shares rose 12.16% to 17,124, which is the largest gains since January 2001.
- About 30 billion shares were traded, making it the most trading day in the history of Wall Street.
Causes market volatility
On 3 April, US President Trump imposed a Tit tariff to the world like worldwide. It has announced to impose 26% tariffs on India. China will take 34%, European union 20%, South Korea 25%, Japan 24%, Vietnam 46%and Taiwan will take 32%tariffs.
The move has started a tariff war. In response to the US tariff, China announced to impose 34% counter -tariff on the US. After the tariff of China, the US announced to impose 50% additional tariffs. This increased the total tariff to 104%.
In response to Trump’s action, China decided that it will now reply to 84% tariff. On 9 April, Trump once again increased the tariff to 125% on China, but postponed the tariff to be implemented from April 9 for 90 days.
