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On 9 April, before Trump’s new tariff policy came into force, the investment firm around the world has increased the estimate of global recession. Global Investment firm JP Morgan has increased the estimate of Risation to 60%.
According to the firm, due to the new tariff of the Trump government and the trade war with China, the possibility of getting into the recession of global economy has reached 60% by the end of 2025.
Earlier this estimate was 40%. JP Morgan said that business confidence will fall from tariff, supply chain will break and global growth will slow down.
Global recession increased after new tariff policy
- S&P Global has raised the possibility of US recession to 30-35%. It was the first 25%.
- Goldman Sachs has made 35% feared for recession. It was 20% earlier
- HSBC said 40% of the recession is already visible in the stock markets.
Dow Jones fell more than 9% in two days after the recipe of reciperook tariff …
On 4 April, the Dow Jones index fell at 2,231.07 points or 5.50% to close at 38,314. It also fell 3.98% on 3 April. On April 4, the S&P 500 index fell 322.44 points or 5.97% to 5,074. It also fell 4.84% on 3 April. On April 4, the Nasdaq Composite closed down by 1,050 points or 5.97%. A day earlier on April 3, it closed 5.82%. Market cap reduced by about 5 trillion dollars in two days
The market cap of the S&P 500 index was 45.388 trillion dollars on April 3, which has come down to about 42.678 trillion dollars on 4 April. On April 2, the market cap was 47.681 trillion dollars. That is, the market cap has decreased by about 5 trillion dollars in two days.
4 reasons for decline in US market
China also imposed 34% tariff on America: China on Friday announced the imposition of 34% counter -tariff on the US. The new tariff will be applicable from April 10. Two days ago, US President Trump imposed a Tit tariff to the world like worldwide. It was imposed 34% of additional tariffs on China. Now China has put the same tariff on America.
Companies are afraid of reducing profits: The United States has announced a 10%minimum tariff on all imported goods and even higher fees on some countries (such as 34%on China, 46%on Vietnam). This will increase the price of goods coming from there. This will increase the cost of companies, which will affect their profits. Investors have started selling shares due to the possibility of a reduced profit, causing a decline in the market.
Fear of global trade war: After the declaration of tariff from the American, other countries can also apply counter tariffs. For example, if India is imposed 26% tariffs, India can also increase the fees on American goods. This can cause obstruction of global trade, affecting the supply chain. This uncertainty has panicked investors and have started withdrawing money from the stock market.
Concern about Economic Slodown: People will make less purchases when the goods are expensive with tariffs, which can reduce the speed of the economy. Also, crude oil prices have fallen due to low demand (American crude $ 69.63 per barrel). This is a weak economic activity signal. This has shown the trust of investors and the decline in the market has intensified.
